next up previous
Next: STATISTICAL THEORIES FOR ENCOUNTERS Up: DYNAMICS OF PLANET-CROSSING ASTEROIDS Previous: THE ASTEROID COMPLEXNEAR

NORMAL PLANET-CROSSING: GEOGRAPHOS CLASS

Let us consider a planet, e.g. the Earth, on a roughly circular orbit with radius a', and an asteroid with an orbit having the perihelion distance q=a(1-e)<a' and aphelion distance Q=a(1+e)>a'. Under these conditions it is clear that the two orbits could have a common point, but we need to consider the geometry in 3 dimensions.

Each of the two osculating orbits lies in a plane; these two planes being, in general, distinct, have a common line, the line of nodes. The two points of the asteroid orbit on the orbit plane of the Earth are the ascending and the descending node, with distances from the sun:

displaymath1127

with a minimum of q and a maximum of Q, depending upon the value of the argument of perihelion tex2html_wrap_inline979 . For some values of tex2html_wrap_inline979 a node crossing occurs, when one of the two nodal distances tex2html_wrap_inline1137 and tex2html_wrap_inline1139 is zero, and one of the two nodes of the asteroid orbit belongs to the osculating orbit of the Earth.

In practice, the orbital elements of the asteroid orbit are by no means constant, they slowly change, mostly as a result of secular perturbations. Over time scales of tex2html_wrap_inline1141 years, in many cases, the eccentricity e and inclination I undergo small relative changes, while the argument of perihelion tex2html_wrap_inline979 performs several revolutions. In this case the asteroid is a quadruple crosser, that is there are four times during each period of circulation of tex2html_wrap_inline979 when node crossings occur, one for each quadrant (Figure 4). In other cases, the changes in e,I are not negligible, and more complicated sequences of node crossings can occur, with up to 8 node crossings per period of tex2html_wrap_inline979 .

figure68

The existence of node crossing has three main implications. First, the classical analytical theories to compute short periodic perturbations, secular perturbations, resonances, and solutions of any kind, are either not available or do not work properly. This results from the presence of the singularity of collision, which can occur if the Earth and the asteroid are passing through the common node at the same time. The classical perturbative theories use either series expansion, which are in this case divergent, or averaging, which results in improper (often divergent) integrals.

figure73

Second, the possibility of close approaches of the asteroid to the Earth (also to other planets) results in chaotic motion. The correlation between the Lyapounov time, over which two nearby orbits increase their distance on average by a factor tex2html_wrap_inline1181 , and the average time between close approaches, is well understood and has been tested in a quantitative way by [Whipple 1995] and by [Tancredi 1998]. To explain in a simple way this phenomenon we can resort to a piecewise 2-body model: during the time span when the nodal distance is small enough for close approaches, if the phases of the Earth and of the asteroid along their respective orbits are independent, there is a finite chance that an encounter occurs. When this happens, we use a 2-body asteroid-Earth model, in which the asteroid follows an hyperbolic orbit around the Earth (Figure 5). A bundle of nearby orbits, with changing impact parameter with respect to the Earth, gets scattered with distances increased by a factor of 2 to 3, if the closest approach is inside tex2html_wrap_inline995 . This increase of the mutual distances of nearby orbits is repeated at each occurrence of a close approach, and each time the factors of increase multiply the previous increase; this generates an exponential divergence, with Lyapounov time roughly equal to the average time span between two close approaches.

As it is well known from both theory and numerical experiments, chaotic orbits exhibit random behavior, alternating between different states, and also diffusion in the phase space which could result in large relative changes of the orbital elements; all the planet-crossing region of the phase space is indeed a single large chaotic sea, within which every transition if possible, although not necessarily probable. Typically cometary orbits and typical near Earth asteroid orbits can be connected by an evolutionary path including deep close approaches; a good example is the numerically computed orbit of (1862) Apollo shown in [Milani et al. 1989], Figures 5 and 6.

Third, the occurrence of node crossings only for some values of the argument of perihelion, which has ``secular'' periods of many thousands of years, results in intermittent behavior. When the nodal distance is small, frequent close approaches result in a random walk of all the orbital elements, even the semimajor axis, with occasional large jumps. When on the contrary the minimum distance between the two orbits is high (say tex2html_wrap_inline1189 ), the asteroid orbit shows all the features of a regular orbit, which could be represented by a Fourier series, over which averaging is meaningful, for which proper elements could be computed. However, this regular behavior only lasts until the next node crossing, when the orbital elements get random walked to some other value, from which a new regular orbit segment can begin.

Thus it is very difficult to make use of any statistical representation of the chaotic motion of an Earth-approaching body. If some kind of ergodic principle does hold for this class of orbits, that is if it is possible to exchange averages over regions of the phase space with time averages, this can occur only over times many orders of magnitude longer than the time span between two node crossings; these time spans are in practice too long to be explored numerically, even with the fastest computers of today, unless approximations are introduced which can not represent in a reliable way the real behavior of the exact orbits.

figure82

figure88

figure93

figure99

The orbits which show this intermittent behavior, alternating between random occurrence of close approaches near node crossings and regular evolution of the orbital elements (with a almost constant) when nodes are far apart, belong to the Geographos class, according to the classification proposed by [Milani et al. 1989]. This classification is based on the analysis of a set of 89 Earth-crossing orbits numerically computed for 200,000 years; the Geographos class was the most populated one in that sample, which included orbits corresponding -although only approximately- to all the Near-Earth Asteroids known at the time. Thus we can say that the Geographos are the ``normal'' Earth-crossing orbits, although their dynamical behavior is abnormal enough when compared to the one of the main belt asteroids.

As an example, Figures 6-9 show the behavior of (1864) Daedalus, a typical Geographos class asteroid. The semimajor axis (Figure 6) is almost constant over time spans of several thousand years, then jumps to significantly different values, in such a way that on the long term it undergoes a kind of random walk. The nodal distance (Figure 7) crosses the zero lines near the times of the jumps in a; the actual occurrence of close approaches follows an intermittent pattern (Figure 8), which can be described as random occurrence of encounters whenever the distance between the two orbits is small enough. The eccentricity (Figure 9) changes in an almost smooth way, as if secular perturbations exist in some sense and control the evolution of the orbital elements tex2html_wrap_inline1201 ; the same is true for tex2html_wrap_inline1203 .

Two main questions arise from this empirical description of the dynamical behavior of most Earth-crossing orbits. The first question is whether it is possible to exploit this alternating, but in some sense qualitatively uniform, dynamical behavior of the Geographos class orbits to give some statistical description, as an example to compute the probability of collision with the Earth. The second question is whether it is possible to develop an analytical (or at least semianalytical) theory to account for the ostensibly regular behavior of the orbital elements tex2html_wrap_inline1205 even in the presence of node crossings and close approaches.


next up previous
Next: STATISTICAL THEORIES FOR ENCOUNTERS Up: DYNAMICS OF PLANET-CROSSING ASTEROIDS Previous: THE ASTEROID COMPLEXNEAR

Andrea Milani Comparetti
Sun May 3 09:54:52 MET DST 1998